WxMidwest.Com Long Range Climatology & Forecasting & Other Interesting Subjects Related To The Field Created: 3-11-2008
1st Entry: How to forecast ENSO Events (La Nina or El Nino) while they are in there beginning stages.
Allthough most in the Forecasting world would probably start looking at trade winds, Outgoing Longwave Radiation over Nino Regions 1.2, 3, 3.4, & 4, MJO cycles, and The SOI/NOI pressure differences between Darwin, Tahiti, the North Pacific high, and the South Pacific high; I find it easier to look at the persistence and Climatology for which Nino/Nina events are defined, the Oceanic Nino Index (No, not the MEI, but it's a nice tool), the ONI is the set standard by the NOAA and other countries around the world. Remember, this is for forecasting the rest of the ENSO event while it's in it's 1st stages. The ONI climatology is better for predicting strength & persistence while things like the SOI are better for forecasting the onset of an event. If Nino 3.4 is already significantly warmer or colder at the begining of the year, climatology shows it's hard to knock down that barrier throughout the entire year. Therefore, the ENSO event lives.... It has a head start.... Momentum.... Links to +ENSO and -ENSO Event Persistence/Strength Forecasting Are Below...
